![]() ![]() ![]() They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people-including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer-who set out to forecast global events. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. ![]() What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? ![]() However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. ![]()
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